6–10 Jul 2026
University of the Western Cape
Africa/Johannesburg timezone
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A Structural Equation Modelling Analysis of the National Senior Certificate Pedagogical Gap and University Readiness in South Africa (2021–2025)

8 Jul 2026, 12:20
20m
Lecture Hall C9 (University of the Western Cape)

Lecture Hall C9

University of the Western Cape

Oral Presentation Track E - Physics for Development, Education and Outreach Physics for Development, Education and Outreach

Speaker

Ms Magdeline Seabi (Nelson Mandela University)

Description

Abstract: While the National Senior Certificate (NSC) university exemption rates have increased, in 2025, this upward trend masks a deepening "Distinction Paradox": a decline in high-level mastery in STEM gateway subjects. This study investigates the systemic disconnect between secondary school preparation and university readiness by examining how specific mathematical sub-skills mediate performance in Grade 12 Physical Sciences, specifically in Papers 1 and mathematic in Paper 1 and Paper 2.
Utilising a massive longitudinal dataset of 656,415 learners across South Africa’s nine provinces, the research employs a robust quantitative framework, of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). EFA was utilised to isolate latent mathematical competencies specifically algebraic and geometric reasoning. SEM quantified their direct and indirect causal effects on physics problem-solving.
The findings reveal that algebraic proficiency is the primary determinant of physics success, yet its current integration within the Physical Sciences curriculum is superficial. The data show that while learners may achieve "pass" thresholds, their lack of deep algebraic fluency creates a significant cognitive barrier when transitioning to mathematically intensive university courses. This confirms that the current NSC Physical Sciences framework emphasises rote conceptual recall over the mathematical synthesis required for tertiary STEM persistence.
This study provides the first large-scale empirical evidence for a "Pedagogical Gap" within the South African curriculum. It argues that the current silos between Mathematics and Physical Sciences are failing to produce university-ready graduates. The research proposes a critical policy shift: moving beyond "access-oriented" metrics toward a "mastery-oriented" interdisciplinary curriculum. By cantering algebraic competence as a non-negotiable prerequisite for physics, South African policymakers can address the high attrition rates in first-year university STEM programs and bridge the chasm between school-level achievement and professional scientific competence.

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Author

Prof. Azwinndini Muronga (Nelson Mandela University)

Co-authors

Ms ANDI ISNI PUJIRANA (NELSON MANDELA UNIVERSITY) Ms Magdeline Seabi (Nelson Mandela University) Mr Mpathi Collin Bacela (Nelson Mandela University) Dr Nobom Hashe (Nelson Mandela University)

Presentation materials

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