7–11 Jul 2025
University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
Africa/Johannesburg timezone
View Guidelines for Oral and Poster Presentations

Statistical Interpretation of the Thermospheric Density Responding to Geomagnetic Disturbances

Not scheduled
20m
Solomon Mahlangu House (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg)

Solomon Mahlangu House

University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg

Oral Presentation Astrophysics & Space Science

Speaker

Ms Sthandiwe Msomi (University of KwaZulu-Natal)

Description

Variations in thermospheric density play an essential role in satellite operations, particularly during
geomagnetic disturbances, where fluctuations in atmospheric drag impact orbital stability. A
significant incident on February 4, 2022, saw SpaceX lose 38 Starlink satellites due to unanticipated
atmospheric drag following a geomagnetic storm. This study aims to identify high- risk periods in
thermospheric density using observational data from ESA’s Swarm Satellite C. By integrating key
geomagnetic indices such as Kp, AE, and SYM-H, this research studies the geomagnetic activity
with thermospheric density variations to assess space weather disturbances. The study uses statistical
analysis to develop a predictive framework for identifying potentially hazardous periods,
ensuring future satellite missions are better equipped to prevent similar risks. Data visualisation
techniques, including plotted density fluctuations, provide deeper insights into the relationship
between geomagnetic activity and atmospheric variability. The findings contribute to a broader
understanding of thermospheric dynamics and their implications for satellite operations, mission
planning, and the long-term sustainability of space activities.

Presentation materials

There are no materials yet.